- The Tigers are +105 favorites vs the Pirates
- Tigers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Tigers / Pirates TV Channel: FDDT | SNPT
The Detroit Tigers (+105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) on Monday, July 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Tigers are 60-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 49-49 ATS.
Tigers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty 5-9, 4.67 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 4-8, 2.03 ERA
Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +180 | O 7 -102 | +105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -220 | U 7 -118 | -125 |
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+11.40 Units / 228% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Walks Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+5.80 Units / 96% ROI)
- Zach McKinstry has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+13.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.45 Units / 60% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+9.40 Units / 134% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 59 of their last 100 games (+17.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 97 games (+12.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 99 games (+11.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 100 games (+9.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 away games (+7.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 99 games (+23.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+15.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+7.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 51-49 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -2.44% ROI).
- 60-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.2 Units / 6.13% ROI
- 50-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.18% ROI
- 46-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -8.1% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 49-49 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -6.4% ROI).
- 39-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.5 Units / -16.69% ROI
- 40-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.55 Units / -20.45% ROI
- 57-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.4 Units / 12.21% ROI
Pirates vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Gleyber Torres (DET) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
Pirates vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 -110 |
| Jack Flaherty (DET) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed a slugging percentage of .639 (39 Total Bases / 61 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .348 — second Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (271/420) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (271/420) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has thrown low pitches 63% of the time (553/880) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .214 (201 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .164 (31-for-189) against Paul Skenes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .319 (272 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .481 — 96th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .285 (124 Total Bases / 435 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .389 — 98th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Tigers are 33-3 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
The Tigers were 13-55 (.191) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Tigers are 52-12 (.812) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Tigers are 72-7 (.911) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Pirates are just 1-23 (.042) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Pirates are just 10-73 (.120) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 2-46 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Pirates are just 1-52 (.019) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,016 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Tigers hitters have drawn walks in 10% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Tigers are batting .263 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .342 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .584 (1,834 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Tigers pitchers over the past seven days (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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