- The Tigers are -130 favorites vs the Pirates
- Tigers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Tigers / Pirates TV Channel: FDDT | SNPT
The Detroit Tigers (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Tigers are 60-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 50-49 ATS.
Tigers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 9-3, 3.15 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 3-10, 3.48 ERA
Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -115 | -130 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -105 | +110 |
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+10.40 Units / 173% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+6.85 Units / 84% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.65 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+13.90 Units / 93% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.45 Units / 60% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.40 Units / 47% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 59 of their last 101 games (+16.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 98 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 100 games (+10.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 101 games (+8.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 away games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 100 games (+24.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 89 games (+16.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 63 games (+12.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+10.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 51-50 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -3.91% ROI).
- 60-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 5.43% ROI
- 50-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.91% ROI
- 47-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -7.13% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 50-49 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -5.11% ROI).
- 40-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.5 Units / -15.6% ROI
- 40-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.75 Units / -21.31% ROI
- 58-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.4 Units / 13% ROI
Pirates vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Zach McKinstry (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Pirates vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Casey Mize (DET) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (23/131) against Casey Mize this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 30 of Casey Mize’s 131 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Casey Mize has a first-pitch in-zone of 61% (227/371) this season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 56% — 89th Percentile.
Casey Mize has a first-pitch strike rate of 69% (255/371) this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (174/914) against Mitch Keller this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 70% (272/387) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .246 (14-for-57) against Mitch Keller on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .335 — 95th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of just 18% (33 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 15th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Tigers are 33-3 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
The Tigers were 13-55 (.191) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Tigers are 72-7 (.911) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Tigers were 18-54 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Pirates are just 1-23 (.042) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Pirates are just 8-60 (.118) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 10-73 (.120) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 1-52 (.019) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .602 (328 PA’s) over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Tigers are batting .263 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Tigers hitters have drawn walks in 10% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .469 (139 PA’s) over the past seven days (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .747.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .130 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .275 (1,834 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .523 (519 PA’s) this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .342 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% over the past seven days (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Pirates have won just 4% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
More MLB Reading:
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