Tigers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 07, 2022, 10:38 AM
  • The Tigers (21-33) are -125 favorites vs the Pirates (24-28)
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal (4-2), 2.14 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-2), 2.32 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Detroit Tigers (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Tuesday, June 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Tigers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Tigers vs Pirates Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Tigers are 21-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 26-26 ATS.

Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Tigers-1.5 +145O 7 -105-125
Pirates +1.5 -175U 7 -115+105

Tigers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 67.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Tigers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willi Castro has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+8.75 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Willi Castro has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.15 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Jonathan Schoop has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 52% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+16.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+5.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 25 away games (+3.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+10.15 Units / 123% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.45 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.80 Units / 33% ROI)

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 25-29 against the Run Line (-5.7 Units / -8.67% ROI).

  • 21-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -13.8% ROI
  • 17-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.45 Units / -34.17% ROI
  • 34-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.75 Units / 26.58% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 26-26 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -5.11% ROI).

  • 24-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 11.12% ROI
  • 20-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -16.4% ROI
  • 27-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 8.28% ROI

Tarik Skubal has a strikeout rate of 40% (17 SO in 43 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .128 (5-for-39) against Tarik Skubal’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 40% (199/494) against Tarik Skubal on changeups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 52% — first Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has not allowed a home run in any of the last 34.0 innings he’s appeared — A.J. Minter has the longest active streak at 63.2.

José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of just 18% (14 SO in 78 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 61% (436/711) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of 33% (15 SO in 46 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 87th Percentile.

Jose Quintana has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 57% (88/154) of opposing batters this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Tigers are just 3-16 (.158) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.

The Tigers are just 1-23 (.042) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

The Tigers are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

The Tigers are just 7-18 (.280) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Pirates are just 70-17 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

The Pirates are 10-3 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Pirates are just 13-15 (.464) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Pirates are just 19-79 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .542 (877 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .688.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .582 (1,408 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .318 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .312 against RHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.

The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Pirates hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 240 of 2,374 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 7 of 45 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 802 of 8,142 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 181 of 1,858 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Elbow, D15
  • Robert Grossman (Tigers): Neck, D10
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Vertigo, D10
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Pineda (Tigers): Finger, D15
  • Victor Reyes (Tigers): Quad, D10
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers): Ribcage, D15
  • Jeimer Candelario (Tigers): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.