- The Tigers (21-33) are -125 favorites vs the Pirates (24-28)
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal (4-2), 2.14 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-2), 2.32 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Detroit Tigers (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Tuesday, June 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Tigers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Tigers vs Pirates Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Tigers are 21-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 26-26 ATS.
Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +145 | O 7 -105 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | U 7 -115 | +105 |
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 67.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+8.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.15 Units / 67% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jonathan Schoop has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+16.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+5.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 25 away games (+3.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+10.15 Units / 123% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 25-29 against the Run Line (-5.7 Units / -8.67% ROI).
- 21-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -13.8% ROI
- 17-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.45 Units / -34.17% ROI
- 34-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.75 Units / 26.58% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 26-26 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -5.11% ROI).
- 24-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 11.12% ROI
- 20-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -16.4% ROI
- 27-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 8.28% ROI
Tarik Skubal: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tarik Skubal has a strikeout rate of 40% (17 SO in 43 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .128 (5-for-39) against Tarik Skubal’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 40% (199/494) against Tarik Skubal on changeups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 52% — first Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has not allowed a home run in any of the last 34.0 innings he’s appeared — A.J. Minter has the longest active streak at 63.2.
José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of just 18% (14 SO in 78 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 61% (436/711) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of 33% (15 SO in 46 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 87th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 57% (88/154) of opposing batters this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Tigers are just 3-16 (.158) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Tigers are just 1-23 (.042) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Tigers are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Tigers are just 7-18 (.280) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Pirates are just 70-17 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Pirates are 10-3 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Pirates are just 13-15 (.464) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Pirates are just 19-79 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .542 (877 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .582 (1,408 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .318 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .312 against RHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Pirates hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 240 of 2,374 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7 of 45 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 802 of 8,142 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 181 of 1,858 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Elbow, D15
- Robert Grossman (Tigers): Neck, D10
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Vertigo, D10
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Michael Pineda (Tigers): Finger, D15
- Victor Reyes (Tigers): Quad, D10
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers): Ribcage, D15
- Jeimer Candelario (Tigers): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
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