- The Pirates are -165 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen, 4.50 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Detroit Tigers (+140) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-165) on Thursday, March 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Bradenton.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Tigers vs Pirates Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Tigers are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 5-4 ATS.
Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -140 | O 10 -110 | +140 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +115 | U 10 -110 | -165 |
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 53.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Tigers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eric Haase has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+2.50 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 159 games (+18.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 25 away games (+14.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 59 of their last 108 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 away games (+11.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 37 away games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 2-6 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -41.14% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -5.39% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.8 Units / 43.68% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -52.81% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-4 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -6.05% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -40.11% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 39.39% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.5 Units / -45.23% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen walked 15 of 91 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
The last hit on a Michael Lorenzen changeup was September 16th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 25 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Bryan Baker has the longest active streak at 28.
Michael Lorenzen has pitched 11.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — J.P. Feyereisen has the longest active streak at 24.1.
Michael Lorenzen walked 14 of 107 batters (13%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 52% of the time (481/930) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (499/1,137) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
19 of Rich Hill’s 66 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill threw his curveball 47% of the time (938/1,990) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Tigers are 13-1 (.929) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Tigers are just 6-68 (.081) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Tigers are just 64-86 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Tigers are just 35-46 (.432) at home last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters slugged just .331 against RHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .289 (8,569 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters had an OPS of just .608 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .277 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers walked 129 of 1,425 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Tigers pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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