- The Red Sox are -200 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Matthew Manning
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on NESN
The Detroit Tigers (+165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-200) on Saturday, August 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Tigers vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 52-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 60-56 ATS.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -115 | O 10 -105 | +165 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -105 | U 10 -115 | -200 |
Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 77.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Javier Baez has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 away games (+14.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+13.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.50 Units / 62% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+11.95 Units / 72% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+11.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
Red Sox vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Red Sox vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -175 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Riley Greene | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -175 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Matt Manning | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 54 away games (+8.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 54 away games (+6.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 away games (+5.04 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 24 away games (+4.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+5.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.55 Units / 15% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 60-56 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -3.2% ROI).
- 52-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 2.27% ROI
- 59-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 1.06% ROI
- 52-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.1 Units / -9.65% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 60-56 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -1.63% ROI).
- 61-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 2.69% ROI
- 56-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -4.96% ROI
- 56-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.15 Units / -4.86% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Manning has allowed a slugging percentage of .500 (12 Total Bases / 24 ABs) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .268 — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .393 (11-for-28) against Matt Manning — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .252 — first Percentile.
Matt Manning has not walked any of the 25 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Matt Manning has struck out just 8% (2/25) of left-handed batters he faced — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (157/261) against Brayan Bello since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (114/323) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 51% (164/323) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 77% (27/35) against Brayan Bello over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Tigers are just 13-51 (.203) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Tigers are just 8-27 (.229) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Tigers are 17-7 (.708) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Tigers are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Red Sox are 47-7 (.870) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Red Sox are 21-8 (.724) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Red Sox are 50-2 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Red Sox are 46-3 (.939) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .632 (7,657 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .347 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (7,657 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .505 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .270 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .372 (517 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Tigers pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Tigers pitchers have walked 333 of 4,377 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 70 of 1,028 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.33 (27.0 IP) against division opponents over the last 30 days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Justin Turner (Red Sox): Heel, Day-to-Day
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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