Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 21

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 21, 2022, 10:47 AM
  • The Red Sox (37-31) are -200 favorites vs the Tigers (26-41)
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Beau Brieske (1-5), 3.78 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (2-4), 4.41 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Detroit Tigers (+165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-200) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Tigers vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Tigers are 26-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 37-31 ATS.

Tigers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Tigers+1.5 -115O 9.5 -120+165
Red Sox -1.5 -105U 9.5 +100-200

Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Tigers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonathan Schoop has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.85 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Jonathan Schoop has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 16 away games (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Javier Baez has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jonathan Schoop has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 18 away games (+4.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games at home (+7.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Red Sox vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alex Verdugo 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
    Christian Vazquez 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
    Franchy Cordero 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
    J.D. Martinez 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
    Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

    Red Sox vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alex Verdugo 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
    Christian Vazquez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
    Franchy Cordero 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
    J.D. Martinez 1.5 +150 1.5 -225
    Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

    Red Sox vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alex Verdugo 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
    Christian Vazquez 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
    Franchy Cordero 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
    J.D. Martinez 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
    Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

    Red Sox vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Rich Hill 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
    Beau Brieske 3.5 -130 3.5 -110
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+17.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 away games (+3.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 games (+3.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 48 games (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games (+12.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 67 games (+6.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 30-37 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -11.5% ROI).

    • 26-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -13.55% ROI
    • 23-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.7 Units / -29.46% ROI
    • 41-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +16 Units / 21.58% ROI

    Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 37-31 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 6.22% ROI).

    • 37-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.23% ROI
    • 27-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -12.99% ROI
    • 34-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 7.34% ROI

    Beau Brieske has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 13.0 innings pitched — Joe Mantiply has the longest active streak at 26.0.

    Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (12/94) against Beau Brieske when he’s behind in the count this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (46/254) against Beau Brieske this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.

    Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (79/437) against Beau Brieske this season — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

    Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (306/622) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

    Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (399/878) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

    Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (370/744) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

    Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (1,176/2,385) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

    Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

    The Tigers are just 9-19 (.321) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.

    The Tigers are just 2-30 (.062) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

    The Tigers are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

    The Tigers are just 5-21 (.192) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

    Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

    The Red Sox are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .073.

    The Red Sox are just 30-6 (.833) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.

    The Red Sox are 19-15 (.559) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

    The Red Sox are just 1-21 (.045) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.

    Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .585 (1,775 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.

    Tigers hitters are slugging just .314 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

    Tigers hitters are slugging just .325 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.

    Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .272 (1,775 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

    The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

    Red Sox hitters are slugging .443 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.

    Red Sox hitters are slugging .468 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

    The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 71% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

    Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

    Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Tigers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.1 MPH (1,681 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

    The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

    The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

    Red Sox vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): COVID-19, D10
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): COVID-19, D10
  • Harold Castro (Tigers): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Dazmon Cameron (Tigers): COVID-19, D10
  • Michael Pineda (Tigers): Finger, D15
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
  • José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60

  • Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Tigers and all MLB games with BetMGM


    Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

    At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

    About the Author

    BetMGM Betting

    Read More @BETMGM

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.