- The Red Sox (38-31) are -135 favorites vs the Tigers (26-42)
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal (5-4), 3.13 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (5-1), 2.27 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Detroit Tigers (+115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on Wednesday, June 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Tigers vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Tigers are 26-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 37-32 ATS.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -115 | +115 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -105 | -135 |
Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 79.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+6.85 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jonathan Schoop has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 17 away games (+6.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jonathan Schoop has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 19 away games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jonathan Schoop has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+8.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)
Red Sox vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Trevor Story | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
Red Sox vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Trevor Story | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Red Sox vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Trevor Story | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+18.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 away games (+4.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 36 games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 49 games (+13.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 games (+13.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 68 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 62 games (+6.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 31-37 against the Run Line (-8.45 Units / -10.13% ROI).
- 26-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.85 Units / -14.72% ROI
- 23-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.7 Units / -30.41% ROI
- 42-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +17 Units / 22.56% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 37-32 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 5% ROI).
- 38-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.88% ROI
- 27-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -14.13% ROI
- 35-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 8.54% ROI
Tarik Skubal: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tarik Skubal has a strikeout rate of 35% (20 SO in 57 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 92nd Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has not allowed a walk in his last 92 PAs against a LHH dating back to July 30th, 2021 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Tarik Skubal has a strike rate of 73% (164/226) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
59% of Tarik Skubal’s called strikeouts are inside this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 89th Percentile.
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (101/323) against Michael Wacha since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of just .148 (8 Total Bases / 54 ABs) versus the heart of the order this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .421 — 99th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of just .358 (62 PA’s) versus the heart of the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .739 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 39% (301/764) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Tigers are just 2-31 (.061) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Tigers are just 9-20 (.310) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Tigers are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Tigers are just 3-15 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Red Sox are just 124-19 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
The Red Sox are just 31-6 (.838) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Red Sox are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .073.
The Red Sox are 19-15 (.559) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .573 (1,028 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .313 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .610 (2,407 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .429 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .565.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .443 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have a Well-Hit Avg of .345 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .284.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.1 MPH this season (1,681 balls in play) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.1 MPH (1,681 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.25 (299.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): COVID-19, D10
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): COVID-19, D10
- Dazmon Cameron (Tigers): COVID-19, D10
- Michael Pineda (Tigers): Finger, D15
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
- José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
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