Tigers vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Royals (32-52) are -135 favorites vs the Tigers (36-49)
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Alexander Faedo (1-4), 5.01 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch (3-7), 4.94 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Detroit Tigers (+115) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-135) on Monday, July 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Royals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Tigers vs Royals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Tigers are 36-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 36-48 ATS.

Tigers vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Tigers+1.5 -175O 8.5 +100+115
Royals -1.5 +145U 8.5 -120-135

Tigers vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Monday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Tigers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.90 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jonathan Schoop has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 93% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)

Royals vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Nicky Lopez 0.5 +1150 0.5
Vinnie Pasquantino 0.5 +340 0.5 -650

Royals vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 1.5 +140 1.5 -200
Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 +145 1.5 -200
Nicky Lopez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Vinnie Pasquantino 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Javier Baez 1.5 +190 1.5 -275

Royals vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Nicky Lopez 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Vinnie Pasquantino 0.5 +110 0.5 -155

Royals vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brad Keller 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
Michael Pineda 2.5 -125 2.5 -115
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 82 games (+20.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+11.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 53 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+4.65 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+5.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.95 Units / 19% ROI)

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 41-44 against the Run Line (-7.6 Units / -7.19% ROI).

  • 36-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -4.58% ROI
  • 29-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.55 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • 51-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 20.79% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 36-48 against the Run Line (-24.4 Units / -21.38% ROI).

  • 32-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -17.52% ROI
  • 41-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -1.74% ROI
  • 39-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.35 Units / -6.81% ROI

Michael Pineda has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.6 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (358 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 90.8

Michael Pineda has walked 27 of 587 batters (5%) since the start of last season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.

Michael Pineda has a strike rate of 68% (1,484/2,179) since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 96th Percentile.

Michael Pineda has thrown his fastball for a strike 75% (911/1,216) of the time since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 99th Percentile.

Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (16/111) against Brad Keller on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Brad Keller has struck out just 14% (30/213) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.

Brad Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (208/383) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Brad Keller has a strikeout rate of just 15% (59 SO in 383 PAs) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fifth Percentile.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Tigers are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Tigers are just 36-41 (.468) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Tigers are just 3-35 (.079) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.

The Tigers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Royals are just 0-25 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Royals are 4-1 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Royals are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .277 (2,270 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .293 (6,501 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .598 (2,270 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .266 (1,391 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Royals hitters have just 480 strikeouts in 2,543 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have just 581 strikeouts in 3,004 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Royals have won just 50% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 76%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .342 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Tigers pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the past seven days (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 926 of 9,403 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
  • Jonathan Heasley (Royals): Shoudler, D15
  • Whitley Merrifield (Royals): Toe, Day-to-Day
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
  • Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.