- The Tigers are -135 favorites vs the Royals
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Detroit Tigers (-135) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+115) on Thursday, July 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Tigers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Tigers vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 43-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 38-59 ATS.
Tigers vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -105 | -135 |
| Royals | +1.5 -150 | U 9 -115 | +115 |
Tigers vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 54.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 18 games (+14.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Royals vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Royals vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Javier Baez | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Riley Greene | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Royals vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Zack Greinke | 3.5 +140 | 3.5 -185 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 84 games (+9.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+8.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 47 away games (+6.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+9.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+8.85 Units / 111% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 8 games at home (+8.20 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+7.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.55 Units / 52% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 49-46 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -2.64% ROI).
- 43-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 4.92% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.6 Units / 3.41% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -11.87% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 38-59 against the Run Line (-30.9 Units / -26.02% ROI).
- 28-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.55 Units / -29.36% ROI
- 44-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.3 Units / -11.52% ROI
- 51-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 2.2% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has walked 5 of 25 batters (20%) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (17/161 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has pitched 15.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Blake Snell has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Michael Kopech walked 18 of 90 batters (20%) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has allowed a slugging percentage of .877 (57 Total Bases / 65 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .436 — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has struck out just 11% (45/407) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (99/142) against Zack Greinke’s changeup since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Greinke has allowed an OPS of 1.286 (66 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .761 — 0 Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Tigers are just 17-102 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Tigers are just 27-40 (.403) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Tigers are just 45-55 (.450) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Tigers are 16-6 (.727) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Royals are just 7-12 (.368) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
The Royals are just 7-23 (.233) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Royals are just 6-22 (.214) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Royals are just 27-60 (.310) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .284 (7,096 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .622 (2,970 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .233 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (3,651 PA’s) versus relief pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .221 (1,947 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Royals have won just 29% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 270 of 3,569 batters (8%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 63% of their games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 21% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have walked 938 of 9,943 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- William Vest (Tigers): Leg, D15
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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