- The Twins are -210 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on BSN
The Detroit Tigers (+170) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-210) on Thursday, June 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Tigers vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 27-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 35-33 ATS.
Tigers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -120 | O 7.5 -105 | +170 |
| Twins | -1.5 +100 | U 7.5 -115 | -210 |
Tigers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 82.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+12.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+9.70 Units / 88% ROI)
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.15 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 21 games (+11.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Twins vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Twins vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Sonny Gray | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.65 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+6.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games (+4.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 55 games (+3.70 Units / 7% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+8.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 87% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+4.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 34-32 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -3.92% ROI).
- 27-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -1.33% ROI
- 35-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 2.37% ROI
- 30-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -10.9% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 35-33 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 1% ROI).
- 35-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -5.97% ROI
- 28-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -16.92% ROI
- 37-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.65 Units / 8.91% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Boyd has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (24 Total Bases / 24 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .596 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .533 (8 GB hits out of 15 GBs) against Matthew Boyd with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (12/81) against Matthew Boyd on non-fastballs this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has thrown fastballs up 65% of the time (294/455) this season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .346 (9-for-26) against Sonny Gray on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — sixth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 52% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (461/881) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has struck out just 16% (21/128) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — ninth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (101/310) against Sonny Gray this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 92nd Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Tigers are just 24-39 (.381) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Tigers are just 12-21 (.364) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Tigers are 16-3 (.842) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Tigers are just 25-45 (.357) after a road loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Twins are just 7-22 (.241) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 17-31 (.354) after a road win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Twins are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .284 (6,354 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .336 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .349 since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .620 (6,354 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have been successful in 180% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .229 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .221 (1,427 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 11 of 64 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 24 of 431 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (299.0 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Twins vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Riley Greene (Tigers): Left fibula, D10
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D60
- Alexander Faedo (Tigers): Finger, D15
- Anthony Wingenter (Tigers): Biceps, D60
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Arm, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers): Finger, D10
- Akil Baddoo (Tigers): Quad, D10
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