Twins vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 24

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 24, 2022, 11:33 AM
  • The Astros (79-45) are -225 favorites vs the Twins (62-59)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (7-5), 4.60 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (12-4), 2.71 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Minnesota Twins (+185) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-225) on Wednesday, August 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Twins vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 62-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 62-59 ATS.

Twins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -110O 7.5 -105+185
Astros -1.5 -110U 7.5 -115-225

Twins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 60.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+16.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 35 games (+16.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 41 games (+15.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 56 games at home (+15.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+14.30 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 119 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 away games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 44 away games (+0.35 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 111 games (+28.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+13.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 53 games at home (+9.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 55-64 against the Run Line (-11.5 Units / -8.05% ROI).

  • 62-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -1.84% ROI
  • 55-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -3.51% ROI
  • 55-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -4.1% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 62-59 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 2.61% ROI).

  • 77-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 2.85% ROI
  • 44-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.6 Units / -24.65% ROI
  • 71-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.4 Units / 16.67% ROI

Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 74% (322/434) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 70% (442/630) when ahead in the count this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 70% of Dylan Bundy’s pitches (303/434) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 38% of Dylan Bundy’s breaking pitches (392/1,025) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.

Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (238/343) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (281/411) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (94/134) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 70% (465/667) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Twins are just 53-7 (.883) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Twins are just 7-39 (.152) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Astros are 49-3 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Astros are 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Astros are 27-5 (.844) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Astros are just 3-33 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .759 (1,543 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

Twins hitters have a groundball batting average of just .164 this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Twins have barrels in 7% of PA’s since the start of last season (694/10,566) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.

Twins hitters are slugging .602 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

Astros hitters have just 627 strikeouts in 3,478 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 247 strikeouts in 1,397 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 757 strikeouts in 4,138 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .337 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, Day-to-Day
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.