- The Astros (79-45) are -225 favorites vs the Twins (62-59)
- Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (7-5), 4.60 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (12-4), 2.71 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (+185) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-225) on Wednesday, August 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Twins vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 62-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 62-59 ATS.
Twins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -110 | O 7.5 -105 | +185 |
| Astros | -1.5 -110 | U 7.5 -115 | -225 |
Twins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 60.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+16.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 35 games (+16.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 41 games (+15.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 56 games at home (+15.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+14.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 119 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 away games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 44 away games (+0.35 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 111 games (+28.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+13.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 53 games at home (+9.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 55-64 against the Run Line (-11.5 Units / -8.05% ROI).
- 62-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -1.84% ROI
- 55-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -3.51% ROI
- 55-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -4.1% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 62-59 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 2.61% ROI).
- 77-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 2.85% ROI
- 44-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.6 Units / -24.65% ROI
- 71-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.4 Units / 16.67% ROI
Dylan Bundy: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 74% (322/434) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 70% (442/630) when ahead in the count this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 70% of Dylan Bundy’s pitches (303/434) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Dylan Bundy’s breaking pitches (392/1,025) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (238/343) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (281/411) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (94/134) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 70% (465/667) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 53-7 (.883) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Twins are just 7-39 (.152) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros are 49-3 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Astros are 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Astros are 27-5 (.844) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Astros are just 3-33 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .759 (1,543 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Twins hitters have a groundball batting average of just .164 this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins have barrels in 7% of PA’s since the start of last season (694/10,566) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Twins hitters are slugging .602 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 627 strikeouts in 3,478 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 247 strikeouts in 1,397 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 757 strikeouts in 4,138 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .337 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
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