- The Astros (80-45) are -190 favorites vs the Twins (62-60)
- Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (2-6), 4.01 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (10-8), 4.08 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Thursday, August 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Twins vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 62-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 63-59 ATS.
Twins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -115 | +155 |
| Astros | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -105 | -190 |
Twins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 36 games (+17.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+16.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+15.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+15.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+14.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 57 games at home (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games (+10.85 Units / 42% ROI)
Astros vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
Astros vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
| Chris Archer | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 120 games (+10.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 51 away games (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 74 of their last 112 games (+29.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+11.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 54 games at home (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 55-65 against the Run Line (-12.6 Units / -8.75% ROI).
- 62-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -2.45% ROI
- 55-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -3.48% ROI
- 55-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -4.07% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 63-59 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 3.29% ROI).
- 78-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 3.29% ROI
- 44-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.6 Units / -24.44% ROI
- 71-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.4 Units / 16.54% ROI
Christopher Archer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Archer has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 45% (57/128) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Chris Archer has thrown his slider 54% of the time (216/399) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.
Chris Archer has thrown off-speed pitches 73% of the time (292/399) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total NonFB; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Chris Archer has a strike rate of just 60% (906/1,509) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of .625 (35 Total Bases / 56 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .412 — eighth Percentile.
Luis Garcia has a strike rate of just 63% (701/1,108) against right-handed batters this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — seventh Percentile.
Luis Garcia has walked 24 of 285 right-handed batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (127/342) against Luis Garcia this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-24 (.273) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Twins are just 7-40 (.149) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Twins are just 53-7 (.883) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros are 50-3 (.943) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Astros are 41-6 (.872) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Astros are 4-33 (.108) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Astros are 69-16 (.812) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .599 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .569.
The Twins have barrels in 7% of PA’s since the start of last season (694/10,601) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Twins hitters have 123 extra-base hits out of 287 total hits (43%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Twins hitters have pulled 48% of balls they’ve put into play since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 628 strikeouts in 3,484 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 248 strikeouts in 1,403 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,149 strikeouts in 10,972 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros pitchers have walked 9 of 55 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Astros pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, D15
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
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