Twins vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 25

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 25, 2022, 6:20 PM
  • The Astros (80-45) are -190 favorites vs the Twins (62-60)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (2-6), 4.01 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (10-8), 4.08 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Minnesota Twins (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Thursday, August 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Twins vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 62-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 63-59 ATS.

Twins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -135O 8.5 -115+155
Astros -1.5 +110U 8.5 -105-190

Twins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 36 games (+17.10 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+16.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+15.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+15.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+14.70 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 57 games at home (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games (+10.85 Units / 42% ROI)

Astros vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Chas McCormick 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jose Altuve 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Astros vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Chas McCormick 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jose Altuve 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Astros vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Chas McCormick 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jose Altuve 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +135 0.5 -200

Astros vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Garcia 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Chris Archer 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 120 games (+10.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 51 away games (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 74 of their last 112 games (+29.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+11.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 54 games at home (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 55-65 against the Run Line (-12.6 Units / -8.75% ROI).

  • 62-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -2.45% ROI
  • 55-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -3.48% ROI
  • 55-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -4.07% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 63-59 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 3.29% ROI).

  • 78-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 3.29% ROI
  • 44-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.6 Units / -24.44% ROI
  • 71-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.4 Units / 16.54% ROI

Chris Archer has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 45% (57/128) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Chris Archer has thrown his slider 54% of the time (216/399) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.

Chris Archer has thrown off-speed pitches 73% of the time (292/399) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total NonFB; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.

Chris Archer has a strike rate of just 60% (906/1,509) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of .625 (35 Total Bases / 56 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .412 — eighth Percentile.

Luis Garcia has a strike rate of just 63% (701/1,108) against right-handed batters this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — seventh Percentile.

Luis Garcia has walked 24 of 285 right-handed batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (127/342) against Luis Garcia this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 9-24 (.273) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Twins are just 7-40 (.149) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.

The Twins are just 53-7 (.883) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Astros are 50-3 (.943) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Astros are 41-6 (.872) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Astros are 4-33 (.108) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Astros are 69-16 (.812) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Twins hitters are slugging .599 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .569.

The Twins have barrels in 7% of PA’s since the start of last season (694/10,601) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.

Twins hitters have 123 extra-base hits out of 287 total hits (43%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Twins hitters have pulled 48% of balls they’ve put into play since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros hitters have just 628 strikeouts in 3,484 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 248 strikeouts in 1,403 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 2,149 strikeouts in 10,972 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros pitchers have walked 9 of 55 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Astros pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, D15
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.