- The Astros are -120 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Astros starting pitcher: Jonathan France
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Monday, May 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Twins vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 27-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 27-25 ATS.
Twins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Astros | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Twins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+16.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+13.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 49 games (+13.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+11.55 Units / 21% ROI)
Astros vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 away games (+11.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+7.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 27-26 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 1.01% ROI).
- 27-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -8.61% ROI
- 22-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.05 Units / -15.39% ROI
- 28-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 6.79% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 27-25 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.8% ROI).
- 31-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 1.56% ROI
- 25-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -6.53% ROI
- 26-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -2.45% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 52% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (430/827) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .292 (59 Total Bases / 202 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .398 — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .252 (29 Total Bases / 115 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has struck out 37% (48/129) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (34/165) against J.P. France this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.
J.P. France has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to May 12nd — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 7.
J.P. France has located his pitches away 56% of the time (195/347) this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
J.P. France has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 13 opportunities (0%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 11% — sixth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Twins are just 13-28 (.317) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros are 41-24 (.631) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Astros are 10-6 (.625) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Astros are 23-13 (.639) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Astros are 23-1 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .864.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have been successful in 160% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Twins are batting just .214 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Twins are batting just .139 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .669 (440 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 414 strikeouts in 2,370 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 794 strikeouts in 4,451 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 93 strikeouts in 520 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.46 (468.0 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 54% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Emilio Pagán (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
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