- The Twins are -115 favorites vs the Astros
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Astros starting pitcher: Brandon Bielak
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-105) on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Twins vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 28-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 27-26 ATS.
Twins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -115 | -115 |
| Astros | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -105 | -105 |
Twins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 61.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 47 games (+17.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- Martin Maldonado has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+10.65 Units / 118% ROI)
Astros vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Astros vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Astros vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Astros vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Brandon Bielak | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 away games (+10.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+2.55 Units / 13% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+8.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 28-26 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 2.5% ROI).
- 28-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -7.12% ROI
- 23-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -13.43% ROI
- 28-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 4.9% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 27-26 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -2.22% ROI).
- 31-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.06% ROI
- 26-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -4.69% ROI
- 26-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -4.22% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 73% (345/471) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 72% (670/934) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 60% (281/471) against Joe Ryan this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed an OBP of just .244 (242 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 97th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Bielak has allowed a slugging percentage of .460 (23 Total Bases / 50 ABs) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .263 — second Percentile.
Brandon Bielak has a strikeout rate of just 11% (3 SO in 28 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .407 (11-for-27) against Brandon Bielak’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .234 — second Percentile.
Brandon Bielak has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (19 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .401 — fifth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .609.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-28 (.317) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros are 41-25 (.621) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Astros are 23-13 (.639) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Astros are 44-27 (.620) after a road win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Astros are 90-8 (.918) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have been successful in 160% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .220 (1,131 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins are batting just .139 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Twins are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 417 strikeouts in 2,381 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 96 strikeouts in 531 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have won 94% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have just 797 strikeouts in 4,462 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros have allowed 3.28 runs per game (354/108) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.09 (946.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Astros vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Emilio Pagán (Twins): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
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