- The Astros are -185 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Minnesota Twins (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Wednesday, May 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Twins vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 28-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 28-26 ATS.
Twins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -140 | O 8 -105 | +150 |
| Astros | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -115 | -185 |
Twins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 78.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 48 games (+18.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+13.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+11.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Astros vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Corey Julks | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Astros vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Corey Julks | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Astros vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Corey Julks | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -155 |
| Louie Varland | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 away games (+11.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+1.05 Units / 5% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 28-27 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 0.97% ROI).
- 28-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -8.44% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -14.99% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 6.47% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 28-26 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.77% ROI).
- 32-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 1.22% ROI
- 26-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -6.45% ROI
- 27-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -2.45% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Louie Varland had a strike rate of 75% (75/100) — tied for highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Louie Varland has a strike rate of 75% (75/100) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 59% of Louie Varland’s pitches (59/100) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Louie Varland has a strike rate of 69% (381/554) this season — tied for 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Brown has a strikeout rate of 40% (19 SO in 48 PAs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — tied for 2nd best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has thrown breaking pitches 60% of the time (257/431) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .381 (16-for-42) against Hunter Brown with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% (80/147) against Hunter Brown this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-28 (.317) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros are 91-8 (.919) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Astros are 42-25 (.627) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Astros are 53-25 (.679) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Astros are 58-11 (.841) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have been successful in 160% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .669 (440 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .448 (1,152 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 417 strikeouts in 2,382 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 797 strikeouts in 4,463 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Astros hitters have 51 extra-base hits out of 114 total hits (45%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros have allowed 3.28 runs per game (354/108) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Emilio Pagán (Twins): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
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