- The Blue Jays are -210 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Watch the game on SNET
The Minnesota Twins (+170) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-210) on Sunday, June 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Twins vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 33-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 32-34 ATS.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -115 | O 10 -300 | +170 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 -105 | U 10 +240 | -210 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+7.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+15.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+11.45 Units / 88% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
Blue Jays vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -550 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Louie Varland | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Gausman | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -140 |
| Louie Varland | 3.5 -190 | 3.5 +140 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 33 away games (+15.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 27 games (+1.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+0.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games (+15.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+9.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 32-33 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -3.73% ROI).
- 33-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -7.36% ROI
- 26-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.65 Units / -18.95% ROI
- 36-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.85 Units / 11% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 32-34 against the Run Line (-3.7 Units / -4.51% ROI).
- 36-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -4.16% ROI
- 30-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -8.19% ROI
- 33-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.41% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (22/38) against Louie Varland — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Louie Varland’s pitches (390/730) this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 97th Percentile.
Louie Varland has a strike rate of 69% (341/492) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 93rd Percentile.
Louie Varland has a strike rate of 70% (124/176) — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 34% (113 SO in 329 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OPS of just .264 (199 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .487 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .112 (21 Total Bases / 187 ABs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .254 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 51% (61 SO in 119 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 95th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are just 7-22 (.241) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 11-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .784.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-28 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are 51-73 (.411) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Blue Jays are 3-24 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Blue Jays are 16-15 (.516) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Blue Jays are just 3-16 (.158) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .140 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have been successful in 180% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .217 (1,366 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 84 strikeouts in 472 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .185 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Blue Jays are batting .256 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Twins pitchers put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.43 (291.0 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.39.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 7 of 256 batters (3%) over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Belt (Blue Jays): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Groin, D10
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Ribs, D10
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