- The Blue Jays are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi
- Watch the game on SNET
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-125) on Friday, June 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Twins vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 31-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 32-32 ATS.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -105 | +105 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -115 | -125 |
Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+9.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+13.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+11.45 Units / 88% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.55 Units / 21% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Garlick | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Willi Castro | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kyle Garlick | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Willi Castro | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Blue Jays vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Garlick | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Willi Castro | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 31 away games (+13.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 25 games (+1.35 Units / 4% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games (+13.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+9.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 30-33 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -6.47% ROI).
- 31-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.7 Units / -9.99% ROI
- 25-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -19.43% ROI
- 35-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.85 Units / 11.34% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 32-32 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -2.13% ROI).
- 36-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -1.48% ROI
- 29-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -8.32% ROI
- 32-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.42% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 52% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (450/858) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (8-for-22) against Sonny Gray on low fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — eighth Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .259 (37 Total Bases / 143 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed an OPS of just .535 (160 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .676 — 94th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of .893 (92 Total Bases / 103 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .552 — first Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of .521 (125 Total Bases / 240 ABs) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .391 — first Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (36 Total Bases / 36 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .605 — third Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an OPS of .847 (262 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .690 — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Twins are just 6-22 (.214) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 2-8 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 14-2 (.875) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Twins are 10-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .785.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Blue Jays are 51-71 (.418) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Blue Jays are 17-20 (.459) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Blue Jays are 3-23 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Blue Jays are 16-15 (.516) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .137 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have been successful in 160% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .217 (1,316 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins are batting just .224 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Blue Jays hitters have just 83 strikeouts in 469 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .376 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .433 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 68% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Groin, D10
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Ribs, D10
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