- The – are favorites vs the –
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Braves starting pitcher: Kolby Allard
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Twins vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 40-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 38-41 ATS.
Twins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | O | ||
| Braves | U |
Twins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+9.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+13.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+12.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Braves vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Braves vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Braves vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Allard | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Kenta Maeda | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 39 away games (+15.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 49 games (+13.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.40 Units / 5% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 70 games (+12.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 79 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.60 Units / 63% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 39-42 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -4.05% ROI).
- 40-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -11.81% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -13.8% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 5.75% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 38-41 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -3.68% ROI).
- 52-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.2 Units / 7.67% ROI
- 44-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.9 Units / 10.25% ROI
- 32-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -19.07% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 22% (2/9) against Kenta Maeda — tied for 5th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 41% — fifth Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has thrown off-speed pitches 70% of the time (35/50) against right-handed batters over the past seven days (1 games) — 3rd highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 49% — 95th Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has thrown off-speed pitches 72% of the time (60/83) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has thrown his slider 41% of the time (34/83) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 7th highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 27% — 88th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 17-47 (.266) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Twins are just 18-33 (.353) after a road win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Braves are 38-24 (.613) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 16-9 (.640) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 629 strikeouts in 2,314 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .220 (1,669 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have been successful in 129% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .451 (1,669 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .899 (739 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .542 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters are slugging .457 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Braves hitters are slugging .491 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strike rate of 66% this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental Health, D15
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