- The Brewers are -140 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Minnesota Twins (+115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-140) on Wednesday, August 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Twins vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 65-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 58-68 ATS.
Twins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -115 | +115 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -105 | -140 |
Twins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 123% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 41 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Brewers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Brewers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Corbin Burnes | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 +105 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 64 away games (+13.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 94 games (+5.80 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.90 Units / 32% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 104 games (+8.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 59-67 against the Run Line (-9.85 Units / -6.42% ROI).
- 65-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.7 Units / -7.71% ROI
- 59-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -6.19% ROI
- 61-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -2.16% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 58-68 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -9.04% ROI).
- 69-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 3.3% ROI
- 54-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.35 Units / -13.95% ROI
- 66-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 4.99% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .387 (24 GB hits out of 62 GBs) against Kenta Maeda this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to July 19th — the longest active streak is 8.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (13/40) against Kenta Maeda on low breaking pitches this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 49% — fourth Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has an ERA of 2.89 (37.1 IP) on the road this season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 4.45 — 90th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 62% of the time (138/221) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 61% of the time (134/221) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 62% of the time (285/457) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .155 (32-for-207) against Corbin Burnes’ non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 94th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Twins are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 26-8 (.765) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .614.
The Twins are 121-3 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Twins are just 18-32 (.360) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Brewers are 15-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Brewers are 18-9 (.667) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Brewers are 23-23 (.500) after a loss as underdogs since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Brewers are just 16-60 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 991 strikeouts in 3,568 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have been successful in 100% of their bunt for hit attempts this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Twins are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,205 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .229 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Brewers are batting just .230 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .372 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Brewers hitters have just 13 strikeouts in 102 PA’s (13%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 350 of 4,672 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 68% of opposing batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Salvatore Frelick (Brewers): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Joseph Ryan (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Willi Castro (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
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