Twins vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 27, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers (54-44) are -200 favorites vs the Twins (52-45)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (2-4), 3.40 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (7-4), 2.19 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Minnesota Twins (+170) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-200) on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Twins vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 52-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 41-57 ATS.

Twins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -115O 8 -115+170
Brewers -1.5 -105U 8 -105-200

Twins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Gilberto Celestino has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+9.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Gilberto Celestino has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.45 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+12.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+10.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)

Brewers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Christian Yelich 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Kolten Wong 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Luis Urias 0.5 +360 0.5 -650

Brewers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Christian Yelich 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Kolten Wong 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Luis Urias 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Brewers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Christian Yelich 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Kolten Wong 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Luis Urias 0.5 +155 0.5 -225

Brewers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Archer 3.5 -160 3.5 +115
Corbin Burnes 8.5 +110 8.5 -155
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 95 games (+8.75 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 85 games (+6.05 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 away games (+5.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games (+15.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 78 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+4.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-53 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -9.32% ROI).

  • 52-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 0.95% ROI
  • 46-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -1.32% ROI
  • 44-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -6.04% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 41-57 against the Run Line (-19.65 Units / -16.45% ROI).

  • 54-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.2 Units / -6.01% ROI
  • 49-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 0.88% ROI
  • 44-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -8.39% ROI

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .117 (9 GB hits out of 77 GBs) against Chris Archer this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 99th Percentile.

Chris Archer has located his fastball up for a strike just 44% (111/251) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.

Chris Archer has a strike rate of just 59% (307/524) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.

Chris Archer has thrown his slider 53% of the time (156/293) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 98th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 46% (60/132) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 66% of the time (310/467) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 68% of the time (96/141) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (691/1,125) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Twins are just 44-6 (.880) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Twins are just 8-19 (.296) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Brewers are 11-4 (.733) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are just 4-21 (.160) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Brewers are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Brewers are 4-34 (.105) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Twins hitters are slugging .547 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Twins hitters have just 10 strikeouts in 70 PA’s (14%) against LHP over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 96 total hits (50%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .752 (1,865 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Brewers are batting just .222 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Twins pitchers this month (18 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% with runners in scoring position this month (18 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers are throwing 4.04 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
  • Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.