- The Twins (38-29) are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (31-36)
- Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (1-2), 3.35 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (5-4), 3.67 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (-120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) on Sunday, June 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 38-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 38-29 ATS.
Twins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -110 | -120 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -110 | +100 |
Twins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 68.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Diamondbacks vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| David Peralta | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Diamondbacks vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| David Peralta | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Diamondbacks vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| David Peralta | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Diamondbacks vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +105 |
| Chris Archer | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 31-36 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -8.11% ROI).
- 38-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 7.94% ROI
- 31-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -3.35% ROI
- 31-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -4.68% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 38-29 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 7% ROI).
- 31-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 0.89% ROI
- 29-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -13.7% ROI
- 36-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 4.55% ROI
Christopher Archer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (30/115) against Chris Archer on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Chris Archer has walked 14 of 75 batters (19%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Chris Archer has thrown off-speed pitches 71% of the time (152/214) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total NonFB; League Avg: 38% — 99th Percentile.
Chris Archer has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 46% (53/115) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of 66% when ahead in the count (tied for ninth highest)– 89th Percentile and 64% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth lowest among qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 15 of 174 right-handed batters (9%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — ninth Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .164 (22 Total Bases / 134 ABs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — 96th Percentile.
33% of Merrill Kelly’s strikeouts are looking against right-handed batters this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 90th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Twins are 18-6 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .673.
The Twins are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Twins are 3-20 (.130) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Twins are 27-2 (.931) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Diamondbacks are just 9-26 (.257) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 80-21 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are just 88-14 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
The Diamondbacks are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .557 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Twins hitters are slugging .422 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Twins are batting .247 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .178.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .749 (1,732 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 34% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .173 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 33% of their home games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Twins pitchers have allowed a run 33% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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