Twins vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 19

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 19, 2022, 11:11 AM
  • The Twins (38-29) are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (31-36)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (1-2), 3.35 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (5-4), 3.67 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Minnesota Twins (-120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) on Sunday, June 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Twins vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 38-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 38-29 ATS.

Twins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins-1.5 +135O 9 -110-120
Diamondbacks +1.5 -160U 9 -110+100

Twins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 68.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+11.25 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+5.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.40 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.05 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+12.25 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.45 Units / 104% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.60 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Diamondbacks vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alek Thomas 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600
    Carson Kelly 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
    Christian Walker 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
    Daulton Varsho 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
    David Peralta 0.5 +425 0.5 -900

    Diamondbacks vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alek Thomas 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
    Carson Kelly 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
    Christian Walker 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
    Daulton Varsho 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
    David Peralta 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

    Diamondbacks vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alek Thomas 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
    Carson Kelly 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
    Christian Walker 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
    Daulton Varsho 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
    David Peralta 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

    Diamondbacks vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Merrill Kelly 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
    Chris Archer 3.5 -115 3.5 -120
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 55 games (+11.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 65 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games (+10.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 56 games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 60 games (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)
  • Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 31-36 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -8.11% ROI).

    • 38-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 7.94% ROI
    • 31-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -3.35% ROI
    • 31-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -4.68% ROI

    Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 38-29 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 7% ROI).

    • 31-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 0.89% ROI
    • 29-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -13.7% ROI
    • 36-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 4.55% ROI

    Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (30/115) against Chris Archer on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.

    Chris Archer has walked 14 of 75 batters (19%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.

    Chris Archer has thrown off-speed pitches 71% of the time (152/214) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total NonFB; League Avg: 38% — 99th Percentile.

    Chris Archer has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 46% (53/115) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

    Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of 66% when ahead in the count (tied for ninth highest)– 89th Percentile and 64% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth lowest among qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.

    Merrill Kelly has walked 15 of 174 right-handed batters (9%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — ninth Percentile.

    Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .164 (22 Total Bases / 134 ABs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — 96th Percentile.

    33% of Merrill Kelly’s strikeouts are looking against right-handed batters this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 90th Percentile.

    Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

    The Twins are 18-6 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .673.

    The Twins are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

    The Twins are 3-20 (.130) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .099.

    The Twins are 27-2 (.931) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

    Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

    The Diamondbacks are just 9-26 (.257) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Diamondbacks are just 80-21 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

    The Diamondbacks are just 88-14 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.

    The Diamondbacks are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .074.

    Twins hitters are slugging .557 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

    Twins hitters are slugging .422 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

    The Twins are batting .247 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .178.

    Twins hitters have an OPS of .749 (1,732 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

    Diamondbacks hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

    The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 34% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

    The Diamondbacks are batting just .173 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

    The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 33% of their home games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

    Twins pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

    The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

    Twins pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

    Twins pitchers have allowed a run 33% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

    The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

    Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Diamondbacks vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Back, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Hamstring, D10
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.