- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | TWTV
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Monday, April 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Twins are 12-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 14-13 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 2-1, 5.04 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 2-1, 4.10 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -220 | U 8 -115 | -125 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+13.50 Units / 270% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 away games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+7.50 Units / 109% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.60 Units / 243% ROI)
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+5.80 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.20 Units / 42% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+6.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+2.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 14-14 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 1.92% ROI).
- 12-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.1 Units / -20.45% ROI
- 10-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -21.29% ROI
- 15-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 13.07% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 14-13 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -5.72% ROI).
- 15-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 11.84% ROI
- 14-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 7.81% ROI
- 11-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -14.02% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .137 (40-for-293) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (182/548) against Bailey Ober since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 34% (161/469) against Bailey Ober in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .815 (22 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .376 — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (57/110) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .111 (3 GB hits out of 27 GBs) against Gavin Williams with runners in scoring position in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 99th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 22% of batters versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 10% — third Percentile.
12 of Gavin Williams’ 51 breaking pitch strikeouts (23%) have been backdoor since last season — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 90th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 16-33 (.327) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Twins are just 1-83 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Twins are just 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 85-3 (.966) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .861.
The Guardians are 96-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have struck out in 28% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters had an OBP of just .296 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .642 (3,980 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .216 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
More MLB Reading:
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