- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Twins / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | TWTV
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Friday, August 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Twins are 51-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 57-50 ATS.
Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 10-5, 2.83 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 6-4, 3.54 ERA
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -235 | O 7 -110 | +105 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +175 | U 7 -110 | -125 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joe Ryan has hit the Earned Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Joe Ryan has hit the Hits Allowed Over in his last 4 games (+4.25 Units / 77% ROI)
- Joe Ryan has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Joe Ryan has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Joe Ryan has hit the Strikeouts Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+2.65 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- David Fry has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+16.10 Units / 179% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- David Fry has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 41 games (+17.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 48 away games (+12.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 away games (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 47 away games (+1.30 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 away games (+0.85 Units / 1% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 105 games (+7.49 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 25% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 50-55 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -5.14% ROI).
- 51-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.65 Units / -12.44% ROI
- 45-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.25 Units / -15.47% ROI
- 58-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.1 Units / 6.76% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 57-50 against the Run Line (+0.2 Units / 0.14% ROI).
- 54-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -1.02% ROI
- 48-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.35 Units / -10.5% ROI
- 56-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 2.88% ROI
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Angel Martínez (CLE) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -325 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .177 (40-for-226) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .188 (12-for-64) against Joe Ryan when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .312 — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of just .250 (16 Total Bases / 64 ABs) when behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .552 — 100th Percentile.
64% of Joe Ryan’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has walked 13% of batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 15% of opponent 7-8-9 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 14% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed an OBP of .379 (248 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 2-45 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Twins are just 2-115 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Twins are just 5-26 (.161) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Twins are just 5-10 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 115-5 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Guardians are 44-3 (.936) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .880.
The Guardians are 23-1 (.920) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .743.
The Guardians are 54-18 (.740) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .214 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (475 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
28% of Twins hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .556 (492 PA’s) in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Guardians are batting just .299 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Guardians are batting just .228 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .643 (1,232 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 45 double plays in 727 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 26% against the Guardians pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 9% of batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.79 (264.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
