Twins vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The (46-28) are favorites vs the (46-28)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (2-3), 3.14 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (3-4), 3.07 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Minnesota Twins () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 43-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 38-34 ATS.

Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins O
Guardians U

Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 108% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+3.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.70 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.10 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • No trends found

Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Josh Naylor 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Myles Straw 0.5 +1050 0.5

Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +145 1.5 -200
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Myles Straw 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Steven Kwan 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Josh Naylor 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Myles Straw 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Shane Bieber 6.5 +100 6.5 -140
Chris Archer 2.5 -175 2.5 +120
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 76 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+9.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 66 games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 46 games (+5.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 53 games (+10.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+8.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 53 games (+5.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 41 games (+3.85 Units / 9% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 36-42 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -7.17% ROI).

  • 43-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 3.9% ROI
  • 36-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -4.79% ROI
  • 37-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -3.29% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 38-34 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 0.77% ROI).

  • 38-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 6.55% ROI
  • 34-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -1.88% ROI
  • 32-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.3 Units / -6.7% ROI

Chris Archer has thrown his slider 53% of the time (131/246) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Archer has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 45% (35/78) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (55/265) against Chris Archer this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.

Chris Archer has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (95/176) of opposing batters this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.

Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 66% of the time (229/346) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has walked 7 of 143 left-handed batters (5%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 92nd Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (14/92) against Shane Bieber this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 60% of the time (282/472) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 95th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 20-18 (.526) on the road this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.

The Twins are just 39-5 (.886) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Twins are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 7-29 (.194) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Guardians are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Guardians are 26-3 (.897) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Guardians are 24-2 (.923) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Twins hitters are slugging .554 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .753 (2,091 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .701.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .324 (2,091 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Twins hitters have just 19 strikeouts in 111 PA’s (17%) against LHP over the last 14 days (8 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .328 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Guardians hitters have just 500 strikeouts in 2,712 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins pitchers have walked 27 of 471 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

The Guardians have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed 176 barreled balls this season — most in MLB.

Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.