- The Guardians (76-66) are -150 favorites vs the Twins (72-70)
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober (1-2), 4.01 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (10-11), 3.04 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Minnesota Twins (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Friday, September 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -105 | +125 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +140 | U 7.5 -115 | -150 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Friday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 39 away games (+11.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 37 away games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+15.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 40 games at home (+13.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+12.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 60 games (+11.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 140 games (+12.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 away games (+11.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 55 games at home (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
John Ober: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (52/166) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (84/265) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (138/435) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (234/502) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 8-48 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Twins are just 9-29 (.237) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 61-7 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 11-57 (.162) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 13-54 (.194) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .117.
The Guardians are 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .758 (1,810 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Twins hitters have 28 strikeouts in 92 PA’s (30%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have just 64 strikeouts in 410 PA’s (16%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins hitters have drawn 3 walks in 92 PA’s (3%) against LHP this month (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have just 689 strikeouts in 3,968 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .694 (3,349 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Twins pitchers this month (13 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 48 of 500 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
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