- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Guardians starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Minnesota Twins (-135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+115) on Monday, September 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 71-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 70-67 ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -115 | -135 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -105 | +115 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 63.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+14.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.85 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+12.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kole Calhoun has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Matt Wallner | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Matt Wallner | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Josh Naylor | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Wallner | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 68 away games (+11.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.03 Units / 23% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 95 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.60 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.94 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 67-70 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 71-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.85 Units / -6.73% ROI
- 67-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -2.51% ROI
- 64-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.5 Units / -5.72% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 70-67 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.26% ROI).
- 66-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.95 Units / -8.79% ROI
- 54-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.2 Units / -21.45% ROI
- 78-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.2 Units / 12.85% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .452 (14-for-31) against Pablo Lopez — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .202 (63-for-312) against Pablo Lopez this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 29% (196 SO in 680 PAs) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 89th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 34% (49 SO in 143 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (156/424) against Lucas Giolito this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 10th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has thrown his changeup 54% of the time (54/101) vs left-handed batters over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% (60/159) against Lucas Giolito in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (37/91) against Lucas Giolito over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 11-24 (.314) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 57-1 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are just 25-40 (.385) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Twins are 125-4 (.969) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 33-103 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Guardians are just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 17-46 (.270) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Guardians are just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .231 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Twins hitters have 1,400 strikeouts in 5,181 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 1,066 strikeouts in 3,842 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 334 strikeouts in 1,339 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,090 strikeouts in 11,268 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .648 (1,546 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 81 of 1,223 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 379 of 5,070 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Twins have won 59% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (627.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Gavin Williams (Guardians): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
