- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 72-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 70-68 ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -115 | -125 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -105 | +105 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+13.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.10 Units / 65% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+13.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 35% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Tanner Bibee | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+9.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 away games (+9.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.03 Units / 25% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.55 Units / 39% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 68-70 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -1.45% ROI).
- 72-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -6.18% ROI
- 68-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -1.84% ROI
- 64-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -6.38% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 70-68 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -0.69% ROI).
- 66-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.05 Units / -9.38% ROI
- 55-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.2 Units / -20.62% ROI
- 78-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.15 Units / 12.06% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .239 (71 Total Bases / 297 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — 97th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of just 15% (16 SO in 107 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .209 (64-for-306) against Sonny Gray this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — 87th Percentile.
11 of Sonny Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 9th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 85th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (21/91) against Tanner Bibee on sliders this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of just .256 (54 Total Bases / 211 ABs) at home this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .415 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (17/50) against Tanner Bibee’s changeup this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 51% — second Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed three-ball counts to 22% of batters they faced (115/517 PA’s) since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 12% — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 11-24 (.314) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 58-1 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 28-9 (.757) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 33-104 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Guardians are just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 7-60 (.104) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Guardians are just 9-36 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 1,078 strikeouts in 3,925 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 1,416 strikeouts in 5,278 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .234 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters are slugging .720 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,481 strikeouts in 8,216 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 686 strikeouts in 3,632 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 81 of 1,241 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Guardians pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.47 (389.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 6% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (1075.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Gavin Williams (Guardians): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
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