- The – are favorites vs the –
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Wednesday, September 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 73-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 70-69 ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | O | ||
| Guardians | U |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 39 games (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 75% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.20 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+14.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 39% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -185 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Gavin Williams | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+11.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 50% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 97 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.69 Units / 21% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 69-70 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.56% ROI).
- 73-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.85 Units / -5.62% ROI
- 69-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.8 Units / -1.17% ROI
- 64-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.75 Units / -7.13% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 70-69 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -1.61% ROI).
- 66-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -9.93% ROI
- 56-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.2 Units / -19.83% ROI
- 78-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.95 Units / 11.18% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (592/1,050) against Joe Ryan this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (106/368) against Joe Ryan since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 70% (736/1,050) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 55% of Joe Ryan’s pitches (1,231/2,226) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 30 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Gavin Williams. — Evan Phillips has the longest active streak at 34.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (16/42) against Gavin Williams on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% (48/176) against Gavin Williams this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 23% — fifth Percentile.
42% of Gavin Williams’ called strikeouts are elevated this season — tied for 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 93rd Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 29-9 (.763) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Twins are just 26-40 (.394) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 33-104 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Guardians are just 5-14 (.263) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 13-21 (.382) after a home win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Guardians are just 5-14 (.263) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .720 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Twins hitters have 1,426 strikeouts in 5,324 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 1,085 strikeouts in 3,965 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .237 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,113 strikeouts in 11,387 PA’s (19%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .650 (3,140 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 391 of 5,191 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 81 of 1,250 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 184 of 2,709 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (1084.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Guardians pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
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