- The Mariners are -140 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Minnesota Twins (+115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-140) on Monday, July 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Twins vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 48-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 44-48 ATS.
Twins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 -120 | +115 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 +100 | -140 |
Twins vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+10.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Mariners vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Mariners vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
Mariners vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 7.5 +125 | 7.5 -160 |
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 46 away games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 away games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+11.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+3.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 45-49 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -5% ROI).
- 48-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.55 Units / -8.61% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -11 Units / -10.56% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 2.28% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 44-48 against the Run Line (-8.05 Units / -6.68% ROI).
- 46-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14 Units / -10.52% ROI
- 45-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -4.64% ROI
- 45-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -4.04% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .322 (121 Total Bases / 376 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .303 (59 Total Bases / 195 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .393 — 95th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has walked 24 of 221 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .254 (48 Total Bases / 189 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .219 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — third best among qualified SPs– 97th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .151 (232 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .144 (118 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (385/903) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 21-5 (.808) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Twins are 105-3 (.972) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 105-5 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Mariners are 29-3 (.906) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 22-3 (.880) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Mariners are 102-9 (.919) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have been successful in 110% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Twins hitters have 713 strikeouts in 2,631 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .371 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Twins hitters have 949 strikeouts in 3,541 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .286 (409 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Mariners are batting just .110 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.48 (403.0 IP) on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 233 of 3,390 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 152 of 2,283 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
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