- The Mariners are -150 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Minnesota Twins (+125) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-150) on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Twins vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 49-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 44-50 ATS.
Twins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -120 | +125 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +140 | U 7.5 +100 | -150 |
Twins vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 62.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bailey Ober has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+8.70 Units / 97% ROI)
Mariners vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Mariners vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mariners vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Mariners vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 7.5 -140 | 7.5 +105 |
| Kenta Maeda | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 away games (+13.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 19% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+13.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+5.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games at home (+3.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 47-49 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -3.16% ROI).
- 49-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.5 Units / -8.44% ROI
- 44-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -8.47% ROI
- 48-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.05% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 44-50 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -8.2% ROI).
- 47-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.25 Units / -10.49% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -2.63% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.35 Units / -6.19% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kenta Maeda has thrown off-speed pitches 83% of the time (95/114) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total NonFB; League Avg: 53% — 100th Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has thrown off-speed pitches 74% of the time (246/332) over the last 30 days (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total NonFB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has a strikeout rate of 33% (27 SO in 81 PAs) over the last 30 days (4 games) — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% (54/167) against Kenta Maeda over the last 30 days (4 games) — 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .108 (11-for-102) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .237 (228 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .210 (88-for-420) against Luis Castillo this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 86th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .263 (453 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — 97th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 34-5 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .784.
The Twins are just 15-31 (.326) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Twins are 39-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 19-11 (.633) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Mariners are just 5-29 (.147) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .216.
The Mariners are 22-3 (.880) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 975 strikeouts in 3,631 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 735 strikeouts in 2,708 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have been successful in 110% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Twins are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .212 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 274 of 3,538 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 241 of 3,480 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 692 of 9,510 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
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