- The Mariners are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-125) on Thursday, July 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Twins vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 50-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 44-51 ATS.
Twins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +105 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -125 |
Twins vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 56.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bailey Ober has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.80 Units / 98% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Mariners vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Mariners vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Willi Castro | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mariners vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 49 away games (+11.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+8.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.55 Units / 28% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.20 Units / 7% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 48-49 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -2.29% ROI).
- 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -7.43% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -7.45% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -0.99% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 44-51 against the Run Line (-11.05 Units / -8.94% ROI).
- 47-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -11.47% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -1.66% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -7.18% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 72% (346/477) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 37% (140/379) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 43% (75 SO in 174 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 85th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has struck out 34% (84/247) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (1,181/1,668) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 70% (554/789) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 3 of 245 right-handed batters (1%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 11 of 450 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 22-5 (.815) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Twins are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 18-2 (.900) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 62-9 (.873) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 29-3 (.906) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 107-5 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Mariners are just 5-21 (.192) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 748 strikeouts in 2,749 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have been successful in 110% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Twins hitters have 989 strikeouts in 3,673 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (924 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .221 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .213 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Mariners are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (429.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (9 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 247 of 3,522 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
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