Twins vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 05, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The are favorites vs the
  • Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Minnesota Twins () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami.

The are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().

The Twins vs Marlins Over/Under is total runs for the game.

This season, the Twins are 4-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 1-5 ATS.

Twins vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins O
Marlins U

Twins vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
  • Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
  • Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Marlins vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jorge Soler 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Byron Buxton 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Jon Berti 0.5 +1200 0.5

Marlins vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jorge Soler 0.5 -160 0.5 +125
Byron Buxton 0.5 -160 0.5 +125
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Jon Berti 0.5 -150 0.5 +115

Marlins vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jorge Soler 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Byron Buxton 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Jazz Chisholm 0.5 +210 0.5 -275
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Jon Berti 0.5 +275 0.5 -400

Marlins vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 7.5 +125 7.5 -165
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 81 of their last 146 games (+11.25 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 167 games (+10.05 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 91 of their last 167 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 86 away games (+1.40 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in their last 1 games (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 98 of their last 168 games (+19.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 95 of their last 165 games (+19.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 168 games (+8.00 Units / 4% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 5-0 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 98.23% ROI).

  • 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 43.48% ROI
  • 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -24.11% ROI
  • 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 15.74% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-5 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -70.65% ROI).

  • 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -31.62% ROI
  • 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -35.38% ROI
  • 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 26.87% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 56% (13/23) against Pablo Lopez this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez threw his changeup 41% of the time (229/565) when behind in the count in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez threw his changeup 44% of the time (269/609) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (231/757) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jesus Luzardo has a strike rate of just 38% (14/37) when ahead in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has a strike rate of just 56% (51/91) this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .118 (2 Total Bases / 17 ABs) this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .420 — 94th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (15/38) against Jesus Luzardo this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 11-28 (.282) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins were just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Marlins are just 105-18 (.854) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.

The Marlins are just 116-75 (.607) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Marlins are just 23-68 (.253) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.

The Marlins are just 34-66 (.340) when underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Twins hitters have just 29 strikeouts in 166 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Games involving the Twins went under in 34% of their games when underdogs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

Twins hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (3,038 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Marlins hitters have 836 strikeouts in 3,038 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Marlins hitters had an OPS of just .597 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Twins pitchers have an ERA of 1.23 (44.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .078 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Marlins pitchers have walked 7 of 45 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Marlins vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
  • Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
  • Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.