- The Twins are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Twins vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | TWTV
The Minnesota Twins (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Twins are 40-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 48-35 ATS.
Twins vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 3-4, 4.69 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 2-0, 3.74 ERA
Twins vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 +100 | -120 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -170 | U 8.5 -120 | +100 |
Twins vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Twins vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brooks Lee has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+12.30 Units / 176% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+18.00 Units / 257% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+13.70 Units / 76% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+12.80 Units / 128% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.20 Units / 56% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 46 away games (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 75 games (+6.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 78 games (+5.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 51% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 43-41 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 1.64% ROI).
- 40-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -11.29% ROI
- 37-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -11.73% ROI
- 44-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 3.29% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 48-35 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 6.87% ROI).
- 38-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 5.86% ROI
- 42-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -4.18% ROI
- 41-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -5.69% ROI
Marlins vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Marlins vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Janson Junk (MIA) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 12% (2/17) against Simeon Woods Richardson in his last two starts — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — third Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of .633 (69 Total Bases / 109 ABs) on changeups since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: .368 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .100 (2-for-20) against Simeon Woods Richardson in his last two starts — 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — 94th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .100 (2-for-20) against Simeon Woods Richardson over the last 14 days — 4th best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .227 — 93rd Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Janson Junk has walked 2% of batters this season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Janson Junk has walked 2% of batters this season — best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Janson Junk has a strike rate of 76% (181/238) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Janson Junk’s K:BB ratio is 13.0 (26/2) this season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 2.6 — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Twins are just 16-28 (.364) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Twins are just 18-28 (.391) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Twins are just 2-106 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Marlins are just 70-14 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 36-62 (.367) after a win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have struck out in 50% of their PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (2 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
The Twins are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .356 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .286 (1,976 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .650 (2,876 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 36 double plays in 579 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 31% against the Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.38 (356.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The Marlins have allowed 5.68 runs per game (233/41) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Twins vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
