- The Twins are -118 favorites vs the Marlins
- Twins vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | TWTV | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-105) on Thursday, July 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Twins are 41-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 49-35 ATS.
Twins vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: David Festa 2-2, 5.41 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 0-2, 6.19 ERA
Twins vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | O 8 -110 | -115 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | U 8 -110 | -105 |
Twins vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+11.30 Units / 141% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+22.60 Units / 283% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+13.50 Units / 75% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.25 Units / 57% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 away games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 away games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 away games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 79 games (+6.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 76 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+13.45 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 65 games (+13.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games at home (+12.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+10.85 Units / 54% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 43-42 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 0.7% ROI).
- 41-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -10.27% ROI
- 37-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -12.86% ROI
- 45-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.1 Units / 4.3% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 49-35 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 7.69% ROI).
- 38-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 4.67% ROI
- 42-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -5.41% ROI
- 42-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -4.54% ROI
Marlins vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Marlins vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Marlins vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Festa (MIN) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Eury Perez (MIA) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Festa has allowed an OPS of just .255 (20 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 game) — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .683 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .105 (2-for-19) against David Festa in his last start — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .222 — 96th Percentile.
75% of David Festa’s called strikeouts are low this season — tied for 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 95th Percentile.
David Festa allowed an OPS of just .255 (20 PA’s) in his last start — 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .646 — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eury Perez allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (47 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 14% (7/52) against Eury Perez on inside fastballs in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 49% (161/326) against Eury Perez on breaking pitches in 2023 — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 34% (257/764) against Eury Perez in 2023 — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Twins are just 2-106 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins are 24-16 (.600) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Twins are just 3-7 (.300) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Marlins are just 70-14 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Marlins are just 48-76 (.387) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Marlins are just 97-125 (.437) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have struck out in 48% of their PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
27% of Twins hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .650 (2,878 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Marlins hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .286 (1,976 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 37 double plays in 583 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.38 (356.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have walked 4% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Batters facing the Marlins pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
More MLB Reading:
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