- The Twins are -102 favorites vs the Nationals
- Twins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Twins / Nationals TV Channel: TWTV | NATV
The Minnesota Twins (-102) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-118) on May 7, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Twins are 16-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 21-15 ATS.
Twins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 0-5, 6.43 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 1-4, 4.89 ERA
Twins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -105 | -102 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -115 | -118 |
Twins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Byron Buxton has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+18.35 Units / 204% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brady House has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+15.60 Units / 195% ROI)
- Jake Irvin has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 10 games (+10.85 Units / 96% ROI)
- Jake Irvin has hit the Earned Runs Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.25 Units / 72% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 44% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+11.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 45 games (+6.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 18-19 against the Run Line (-7.75 Units / -14.62% ROI).
- 16-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -9.54% ROI
- 21-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.6 Units / 16.22% ROI
- 13-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -25.06% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 21-15 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 3.99% ROI).
- 17-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 10.98% ROI
- 23-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.05 Units / 24.85% ROI
- 12-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -32.8% ROI
Nationals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Yes | |
|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | +240 |
| Matt Wallner | +340 |
| James Wood | +360 |
| Kody Clemens | +400 |
| Ryan Jeffers | +450 |
Nationals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia Jr. | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Daylen Lile | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luke Keaschall | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| James Wood | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Nationals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady House | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kody Clemens | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Twins are just 1-9 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Twins are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Twins are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Twins are just 2-6 (.250) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Nationals (seventh in runs scored).
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Nationals are just 5-13 (.278) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 5-11 (.312) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 11-4 (.733) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Nationals are just 12-3 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .194 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Twins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.
Twins hitters have struck out in 37% of their PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB.
The Twins are batting just .213 on the road this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting just .170 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .258 (178 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of .774 (428 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB.
The Nationals have scored 2.05 runs per game (76/37) in late innings this season — best in MLB.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Twins pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 5.51 (142.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
The Nationals have allowed 5.68 runs per game (210/37) this season — 2nd highest in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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