- The Orioles are -150 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Minnesota Twins (+125) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-150) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 41-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 48-32 ATS.
Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -120 | +125 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 +100 | -150 |
Twins vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+13.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+8.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Orioles vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Orioles vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Orioles vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
| Bailey Ober | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 41 away games (+14.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 67 games (+15.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 77 games (+15.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games at home (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 40-43 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -4.31% ROI).
- 41-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -11.59% ROI
- 36-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -13.63% ROI
- 44-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +5 Units / 5.5% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 48-32 against the Run Line (+14.7 Units / 14.45% ROI).
- 48-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.3 Units / 14.02% ROI
- 41-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.85 Units / 4.39% ROI
- 34-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.15 Units / -12.59% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 78% of the time (708/911) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 80% of the time (392/492) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has elevated his fastball 80% of the time (392/492) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has walked 1 of 50 batters (2%) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 4th best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (458/806) since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against Kyle Bradish over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 7.05 (83.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 3.95 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .135 (5-for-37) against Kyle Bradish in late innings since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 18-33 (.353) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Twins are just 14-30 (.318) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are 96-5 (.950) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Orioles are 31-23 (.574) after a road loss since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Orioles are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 10-4 (.714) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (751 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Twins hitters have been successful in 129% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
The Twins are batting just .146 with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .662 (751 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .407 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Orioles are batting .257 with two outs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Orioles are 147-94 (.607) against the run line (13.0% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are batting just .233 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 52 of 744 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .168 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Orioles pitchers have walked 5 of 99 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Orioles): Ankle, D10
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental Health, D15
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