- The – are favorites vs the –
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cole Irvin
- Watch the game on Peacock
The Minnesota Twins () visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles () on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Twins vs Orioles Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 42-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 48-33 ATS.
Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | O | ||
| Orioles | U |
Twins vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 60.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 away games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.70 Units / 54% ROI)
Orioles vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Orioles vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Adley Rutschman | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Orioles vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Orioles vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 42 away games (+15.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 52 games (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+7.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+14.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 games at home (+4.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games at home (+1.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 41-43 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -3.28% ROI).
- 42-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.05 Units / -10.41% ROI
- 36-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -14.6% ROI
- 45-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 6.52% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 48-33 against the Run Line (+13.7 Units / 13.34% ROI).
- 48-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 12.42% ROI
- 41-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 3.15% ROI
- 35-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.15 Units / -11.32% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (70/124) against Sonny Gray this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 53% (323/609) on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (125/378) against Sonny Gray this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .306 (56 Total Bases / 183 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .393 — 92nd Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (53/304) against Cole Irvin on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .294 (57-for-194) against Cole Irvin on low non-fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: .198 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (134/631) against Cole Irvin on non-fastballs since last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 31% — fourth Percentile.
Cole Irvin has an average spin rate of 2096.3 RPM on curveballs since last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 2514.5 — seventh Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 19-33 (.365) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are 19-6 (.760) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Orioles are 96-5 (.950) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Orioles are 10-4 (.714) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Orioles are 48-33 (.593) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 656 strikeouts in 2,412 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .147 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Twins hitters have 861 strikeouts in 3,166 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have just 7 strikeouts in 73 PA’s (10%) with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Orioles are batting just .233 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Orioles are batting .404 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
The Orioles are batting .255 with two outs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .165 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Orioles pitchers have walked 146 of 2,168 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.56 (1543.0 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Orioles vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Orioles): Ankle, D10
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental Health, D15
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