- The Twins are -105 favorites vs the Orioles
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Minnesota Twins (-105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-115) on Friday, June 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Twins vs Orioles Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 40-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 48-31 ATS.
Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -120 | -105 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | U 9 +100 | -115 |
Twins vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.20 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 75% ROI)
Orioles vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Orioles vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Orioles vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Orioles vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Dean Kremer | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 away games (+16.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 66 games (+16.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 76 games (+16.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+5.05 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+4.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+4.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 39-43 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -5.39% ROI).
- 40-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.3 Units / -12.58% ROI
- 35-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -14.89% ROI
- 44-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.1 Units / 6.79% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 48-31 against the Run Line (+15.7 Units / 15.59% ROI).
- 48-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.4 Units / 15.26% ROI
- 40-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 3.29% ROI
- 34-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -11.49% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez allowed a batting average of just .172 vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 90th Percentile and .317 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 12th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 72% (285/396) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 45% (65 SO in 144 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 91st Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (178/488) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .301 (49-for-163) against Dean Kremer’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — third Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .566 (47 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (35/105) against Dean Kremer in two-strike counts this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a strikeout rate of just 21% (19 SO in 91 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — seventh Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 31-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 15-4 (.789) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .607.
The Twins are just 18-33 (.353) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are 10-6 (.625) after a home loss this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 19-5 (.792) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Orioles are 41-12 (.774) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .644.
The Orioles are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have been successful in 129% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
The Twins are batting just .218 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Twins hitters have 838 strikeouts in 3,089 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .290 (727 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .413 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Orioles are 147-93 (.610) against the run line (13.5% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are batting .258 with two outs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 61% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 51 of 735 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .162 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Orioles have won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- James McCann (Orioles): Ankle, D10
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental Health, D15
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