- The Padres (55-45) are -125 favorites vs the Twins (52-46)
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (7-3), 2.88 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell (2-5), 4.74 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Twins vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 52-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 47-53 ATS.
Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 +100 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -120 | -125 |
Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+10.20 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 30 games (+12.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -115 |
| Joe Ryan | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 away games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 81 games (+9.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 96 games (+7.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 86 games (+5.05 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 away games (+4.10 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+11.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 99 games (+0.50 Units / 0% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-54 against the Run Line (-12 Units / -10.21% ROI).
- 52-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.19% ROI
- 47-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.37% ROI
- 44-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.6 Units / -6.99% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 47-53 against the Run Line (-7.15 Units / -5.79% ROI).
- 55-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -0.65% ROI
- 45-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -10.63% ROI
- 52-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 1.93% ROI
Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (68/227) against Joe Ryan this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (16/58) against Joe Ryan this month (4 games) — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (54/286) against Joe Ryan this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (41/140) against Joe Ryan in non-two strike counts this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Blake Snell: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 85 of 622 right-handed batters (14%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 18 of 71 batters (25%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 14 of 88 batters (16%) this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 11 of 70 right-handed batters (16%) this month (4 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 8-20 (.286) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are 15-4 (.789) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Padres are 6-31 (.162) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Padres are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres are 30-24 (.556) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have just 5 strikeouts in 44 PA’s (11%) against LHP over the last 14 days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins hitters are slugging .541 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .328 (1,902 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Twins hitters are slugging .423 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .642 (1,673 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Padres hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,376 of their 4,160 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 21 of 153 batters (14%) over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 30 of 275 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Twins pitchers this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .188 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.4
Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- MacKenzie Gore (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Paul Abrams (Padres): Biceps, Day-to-Day
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Hamstring, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day
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