Twins vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (55-45) are -125 favorites vs the Twins (52-46)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (7-3), 2.88 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell (2-5), 4.74 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Twins vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 52-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 47-53 ATS.

Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -200O 7.5 +100+105
Padres -1.5 +165U 7.5 -120-125

Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Gilberto Celestino has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+10.20 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.20 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 30 games (+12.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.35 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Blake Snell 6.5 -120 6.5 -115
Joe Ryan 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 away games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 81 games (+9.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 96 games (+7.75 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 86 games (+5.05 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 away games (+4.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+11.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 99 games (+0.50 Units / 0% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-54 against the Run Line (-12 Units / -10.21% ROI).

  • 52-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.19% ROI
  • 47-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.37% ROI
  • 44-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.6 Units / -6.99% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 47-53 against the Run Line (-7.15 Units / -5.79% ROI).

  • 55-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -0.65% ROI
  • 45-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -10.63% ROI
  • 52-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 1.93% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (68/227) against Joe Ryan this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (16/58) against Joe Ryan this month (4 games) — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (54/286) against Joe Ryan this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (41/140) against Joe Ryan in non-two strike counts this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.

Blake Snell: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Blake Snell has walked 85 of 622 right-handed batters (14%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 18 of 71 batters (25%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 14 of 88 batters (16%) this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 11 of 70 right-handed batters (16%) this month (4 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 8-20 (.286) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Padres are 15-4 (.789) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Padres are 6-31 (.162) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Padres are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Padres are 30-24 (.556) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

Twins hitters have just 5 strikeouts in 44 PA’s (11%) against LHP over the last 14 days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Twins hitters are slugging .541 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .328 (1,902 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Twins hitters are slugging .423 on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .642 (1,673 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Padres hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,376 of their 4,160 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Twins pitchers have walked 21 of 153 batters (14%) over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins pitchers have walked 30 of 275 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Twins pitchers this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Padres have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .188 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.4

Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • MacKenzie Gore (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Abrams (Padres): Biceps, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.