- The Padres (56-45) are -135 favorites vs the Twins (52-47)
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (5-3), 3.52 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-3), 2.63 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Minnesota Twins (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Twins vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 52-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-53 ATS.
Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -120 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 +100 | -135 |
Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 40 games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Luke Voit | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Luke Voit | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Luke Voit | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -165 |
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 82 games (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 97 games (+6.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 87 games (+4.05 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 36 away games (+2.30 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 76 games (+10.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 63% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 100 games (+1.50 Units / 1% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.90 Units / 10% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-55 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -11.56% ROI).
- 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.56% ROI
- 48-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.55% ROI
- 44-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -7.84% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 48-53 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -4.46% ROI).
- 56-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.07% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -9.61% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 1.02% ROI
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (95 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (341/656) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (494/961) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has walked 22 of 157 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has walked 1 of 129 batters (1%) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .143 (5-for-35) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 29% (87/296) against Joe Musgrove this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 86th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .164 (101-for-616) against Joe Musgrove’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 95th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are just 6-34 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Twins are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Twins are just 8-21 (.276) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are just 2-33 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Padres are 6-31 (.162) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Padres are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Padres are 47-13 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .105 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (4 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Twins hitters are slugging .540 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Twins hitters are slugging .425 on the road since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Twins hitters have just 31 strikeouts in 169 PA’s (18%) against LHP this month (15 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .652 (1,710 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 25 of 190 batters (13%) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 6.82 (60.2 IP) over the last 14 days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .188 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.4
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- MacKenzie Gore (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Hamstring, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day
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