Twins vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 30, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (56-45) are -135 favorites vs the Twins (52-47)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (5-3), 3.52 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-3), 2.63 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Minnesota Twins (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Twins vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 52-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-53 ATS.

Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -190O 7.5 -120+110
Padres -1.5 +155U 7.5 +100-135

Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 63.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 40 games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.20 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)

Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Luke Voit 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Luke Voit 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Luke Voit 0.5 +110 0.5 -155

Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 6.5 +115 6.5 -165
Sonny Gray 4.5 -125 4.5 -115
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 82 games (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 97 games (+6.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 87 games (+4.05 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 36 away games (+2.30 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 76 games (+10.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 100 games (+1.50 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.90 Units / 10% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-55 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -11.56% ROI).

  • 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.56% ROI
  • 48-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.55% ROI
  • 44-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -7.84% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 48-53 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -4.46% ROI).

  • 56-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.07% ROI
  • 46-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -9.61% ROI
  • 52-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 1.02% ROI

Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (95 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (341/656) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (494/961) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Sonny Gray has walked 22 of 157 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Joe Musgrove has walked 1 of 129 batters (1%) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .143 (5-for-35) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 29% (87/296) against Joe Musgrove this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 86th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .164 (101-for-616) against Joe Musgrove’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 95th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Twins are just 6-34 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

The Twins are 46-13 (.780) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Twins are just 8-21 (.276) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Padres are just 2-33 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Padres are 6-31 (.162) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Padres are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Padres are 47-13 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Twins are batting just .105 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (4 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

Twins hitters are slugging .540 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Twins hitters are slugging .425 on the road since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Twins hitters have just 31 strikeouts in 169 PA’s (18%) against LHP this month (15 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .652 (1,710 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Twins pitchers have walked 25 of 190 batters (13%) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins pitchers have an ERA of 6.82 (60.2 IP) over the last 14 days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Padres have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .188 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.4

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • MacKenzie Gore (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.