Twins vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 31

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 31, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (56-46) are -145 favorites vs the Twins (53-47)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (6-4), 5.01 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (5-5), 4.32 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Minnesota Twins (+120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Sunday, July 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Twins vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 53-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-54 ATS.

Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -165O 8.5 -105+120
Padres -1.5 +135U 8.5 -115-145

Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Gilberto Celestino has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 away games (+10.25 Units / 73% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.20 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+12.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Luke Voit 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Manny Machado 1.5 +160 1.5 -250

Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Luke Voit 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sean Manaea 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Dylan Bundy 3.5 -165 3.5 +115
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 away games (+12.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 83 games (+9.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 98 games (+7.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 88 games (+5.20 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 37 away games (+3.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 42 of their last 77 games (+11.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games at home (+5.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.10 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 101 games (+0.15 Units / 0% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 45-55 against the Run Line (-12.8 Units / -10.57% ROI).

  • 53-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.3% ROI
  • 49-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.55% ROI
  • 44-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.9 Units / -8.92% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 48-54 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -5.22% ROI).

  • 56-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -0.89% ROI
  • 47-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -8.53% ROI
  • 52-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI

Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 73% (261/355) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 72% (549/767) in two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 50% (93/186) against Dylan Bundy with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 98th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .297 (43-for-145) against Dylan Bundy this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.

Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sean Manaea has a strike rate of just 56% (51/91) in late innings this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.

Sean Manaea has walked 4 of 23 batters (17%) in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.

Sean Manaea has walked 27 of 321 right-handed batters (8%) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.

Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (658/1,535) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 47-13 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Twins are just 6-34 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.

The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Padres are 6-32 (.158) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Padres are 47-13 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are just 2-34 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Padres are 30-24 (.556) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.

Twins hitters are slugging .534 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .748 (1,972 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .778 (1,299 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Twins hitters have 49 extra-base hits out of 98 total hits (50%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .350 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

The Padres are batting just .224 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .654 (1,749 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Twins pitchers have walked 32 of 276 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins pitchers have walked 24 of 192 batters (12%) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins pitchers have an ERA of 6.97 (60.2 IP) over the last 14 days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Padres have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.4

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .172 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • MacKenzie Gore (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.