- The Padres (56-46) are -145 favorites vs the Twins (53-47)
- Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (6-4), 5.01 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (5-5), 4.32 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (+120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Sunday, July 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 53-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-54 ATS.
Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 away games (+10.25 Units / 73% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+12.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Luke Voit | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manny Machado | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Luke Voit | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
| Dylan Bundy | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 away games (+12.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 83 games (+9.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 98 games (+7.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 88 games (+5.20 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 37 away games (+3.30 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 42 of their last 77 games (+11.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games at home (+5.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 101 games (+0.15 Units / 0% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 45-55 against the Run Line (-12.8 Units / -10.57% ROI).
- 53-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.3% ROI
- 49-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.55% ROI
- 44-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.9 Units / -8.92% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 48-54 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -5.22% ROI).
- 56-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -0.89% ROI
- 47-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -8.53% ROI
- 52-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI
Dylan Bundy: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 73% (261/355) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 72% (549/767) in two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 50% (93/186) against Dylan Bundy with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .297 (43-for-145) against Dylan Bundy this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.
Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has a strike rate of just 56% (51/91) in late innings this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 4 of 23 batters (17%) in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 27 of 321 right-handed batters (8%) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.
Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (658/1,535) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 47-13 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Twins are just 6-34 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are 6-32 (.158) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Padres are 47-13 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres are just 2-34 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Padres are 30-24 (.556) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .534 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .748 (1,972 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .778 (1,299 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Twins hitters have 49 extra-base hits out of 98 total hits (50%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .350 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Padres are batting just .224 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .654 (1,749 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 32 of 276 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 24 of 192 batters (12%) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 6.97 (60.2 IP) over the last 14 days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.4
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .172 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- MacKenzie Gore (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Hamstring, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Foot, D10
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