- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+105) on Saturday, August 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 60-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 50-67 ATS.
Twins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -115 | -125 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -105 | +105 |
Twins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+15.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+13.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+11.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt Wallner | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Phillies vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Matt Wallner | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Wallner | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Phillies vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Taijuan Walker | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 61 away games (+15.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+6.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 59 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.89 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.79 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games at home (+6.24 Units / 10% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 54-64 against the Run Line (-12.75 Units / -8.84% ROI).
- 60-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.15 Units / -8.57% ROI
- 56-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -5.5% ROI
- 57-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -3.09% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 50-67 against the Run Line (-25.1 Units / -17.09% ROI).
- 65-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -2.76% ROI
- 47-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -18 Units / -14.04% ROI
- 59-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.75 Units / 6.1% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (408/574) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .190 (11 Total Bases / 58 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 35% (39 SO in 110 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (435/1,451) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (83/467) against Taijuan Walker this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — sixth Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 59% (591/993) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (22/143) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 58% (337/582) in two strike counts this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Twins are 24-6 (.800) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .614.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Phillies are 11-5 (.688) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Phillies are 24-99 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 18-100 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Phillies are 6-45 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have been successful in 112% of their bunt for hit attempts this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Twins are batting just .225 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters have 932 strikeouts in 3,353 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .629 over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.014 (265 PA’s) over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Phillies hitters have 345 strikeouts in 1,377 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .608 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 320 of 4,375 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strike rate of 66% this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 333 of 4,373 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 261 of 3,900 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Ryan (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Donovan Solano (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
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