- The Twins (47-38) are -120 favorites vs the Rangers (37-43)
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (4-1), 2.47 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray (4-4), 3.95 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Minnesota Twins (-120) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (+100) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Twins vs Rangers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 47-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 47-33 ATS.
Twins vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -105 | -120 |
| Rangers | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -115 | +100 |
Twins vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s matchup with 68.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+7.30 Units / 146% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+5.65 Units / 81% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+4.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+11.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.90 Units / 84% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 24 games (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Rangers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh H. Smith | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Rangers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Josh H. Smith | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Rangers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Rangers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Gray | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -145 |
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 73 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+6.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 away games (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 69 games (+18.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 41 games (+7.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 60 games (+3.85 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 26 games at home (+1.33 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 39-46 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -8.41% ROI).
- 47-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 4.28% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -6.75% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -0.9% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 47-33 against the Run Line (+10.1 Units / 9.56% ROI).
- 37-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -4.41% ROI
- 34-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.55 Units / -8.54% ROI
- 38-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 0.91% ROI
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (459/894) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (85 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (316/605) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 41% of Sonny Gray’s non-fastballs (561/1,368) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 48% — third Percentile.
Jonathan Gray: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (13/59) against Jon Gray on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Jon Gray has induced opposing hitters to ground into 3 double plays in 7 opportunities (43%) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (9/37) against Jon Gray on low breaking pitches this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (15/63) against Jon Gray’s curve and slider this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Twins are just 2-8 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 3-26 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .081.
The Twins are 4-25 (.138) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Twins are 33-6 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rangers are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .919.
The Rangers are 21-4 (.840) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Rangers are just 35-37 (.486) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Rangers are just 12-36 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .570 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Twins hitters are slugging .292 with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Twins hitters are slugging .615 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Twins hitters are slugging .432 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (3,430 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (2,745 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .680 (2,745 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (1,081 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 66 of 713 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Hernández (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Bush (Rangers): Forearm, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
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