- The Rangers are -145 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Minnesota Twins (+120) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-145) on Sunday, September 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Rangers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 71-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 73-61 ATS.
Twins vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -120 | +120 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +135 | U 9 +100 | -145 |
Twins vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+15.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 away games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+11.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 26 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
Rangers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Rangers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Rangers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Rangers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Gray | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Kenta Maeda | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 67 away games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+7.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.03 Units / 23% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 63 games at home (+19.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 127 games (+18.48 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 71 of their last 127 games (+18.42 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 62 games at home (+14.28 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games at home (+12.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 66-70 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -2.98% ROI).
- 71-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -6.24% ROI
- 66-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -3.19% ROI
- 64-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -4.95% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 73-61 against the Run Line (+12.9 Units / 7.82% ROI).
- 75-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -0.37% ROI
- 67-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.24% ROI
- 61-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -8.38% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kenta Maeda has allowed at least one HR in each of his last eight games dating back to July 19th — Joe Ryan has the longest active streak at 9.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (22/89) against Kenta Maeda’s curve and slider this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (49/148) against Kenta Maeda on non-fastballs this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (20/84) against Kenta Maeda on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .175 (50-for-285) against Jon Gray’s non-fastballs this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .453 (29-for-64) against Jon Gray on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .342 — fourth Percentile.
Jon Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .578 (37 Total Bases / 64 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of 37% (375/1,004) against Jon Gray since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Twins are just 11-24 (.314) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 57-1 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Twins are 13-43 (.232) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rangers are 22-16 (.579) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Rangers are just 67-48 (.583) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Rangers are 65-15 (.812) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Rangers are just 2-129 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 1,400 strikeouts in 5,181 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .231 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Twins hitters have 1,066 strikeouts in 3,842 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have been successful in 86% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .352 (1,384 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Rangers hitters are slugging .493 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .776 (3,194 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Rangers hitters are slugging .462 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 379 of 5,070 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rangers have won 58% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 232 of 2,646 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D10
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Jung (Rangers): Thumb, D10
- Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers): Elbow, D15
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
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