- The – are favorites vs the –
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins () visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays () on Thursday, June 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Twins vs Rays Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 31-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 36-28 ATS.
Twins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | O | ||
| Rays | U |
Twins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 73.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+8.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+7.30 Units / 81% ROI)
- Zach Eflin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 94% ROI)
Rays vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Rays vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Rays vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Yonny Chirinos | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 away games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 24 games (+2.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.50 Units / 6% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 64 games (+20.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 64 games (+20.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+15.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+13.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+13.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 30-32 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -3.75% ROI).
- 31-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -8.95% ROI
- 25-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.5 Units / -18.2% ROI
- 34-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 10.06% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 36-28 against the Run Line (+10 Units / 13.67% ROI).
- 45-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.6 Units / 20.01% ROI
- 35-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 8.65% ROI
- 26-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -18.15% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 78% of the time (588/755) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 81% of the time (272/336) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (90/289) against Bailey Ober since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 49% (19/39) against Bailey Ober — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 46% of Trevor Kelley’s pitches (11/24) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (3 games) — 7th lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 59% — eighth Percentile.
Trevor Kelley has a strike rate of just 57% (52/91) over the last 14 days (4 games) — 8th lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 14% (3/22) against Trevor Kelley on the first pitch of at-bats — tied for 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 14% (3/22) against Trevor Kelley on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (4 games) — tied for 7th lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 30% — seventh Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Twins are just 6-22 (.214) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 2-8 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 16-30 (.348) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rays are 27-6 (.818) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Rays are 6-1 (.857) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Rays are 9-12 (.429) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Rays are 9-7 (.562) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .219 (1,302 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins are batting just .215 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Twins are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters are slugging just .156 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .560 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .922 (437 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Rays hitters are slugging .602 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 82% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 68% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins pitchers have walked 3 of 107 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have won 75% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rays vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Yandy DÃaz (Rays): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Hip, D15
- Zack Littell (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Leg, D10
- Calvin Faucher (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Ribs, D10
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