- The Rays are -160 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Minnesota Twins (+135) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-160) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Twins vs Rays Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far in Spring Training, the Twins are 1-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 4-0 ATS.
Twins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -105 | +135 |
| Rays | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 -115 | -160 |
Twins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games at home (+6.05 Units / 86% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 160 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 160 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 40 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 61 games at home (+13.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 61 games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -50.48% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -20.62% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -8.25% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 1.23% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 4-0 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 98.02% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 22.22% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kenta Maeda has not allowed a HR in any of his last three games started dating back to August 8th, 2021 — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 12.
Kenta Maeda has not allowed a home run in any of the last 16.0 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has walked 31 of 760 batters (4%) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Zach Eflin did not walk any of the 33 batters that he faced over the last 30 days of the regular season (8 games) — tied for best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .444 (20-for-45) against Zach Eflin on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .338 — third Percentile.
Zach Eflin has located his fastballs down 47% of the time (725/1,542) since the start of the 2021 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 8-56 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Twins are just 32-48 (.400) on the road last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rays are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins have hit 3,371 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins have hit 193 balls in play with an exit velocity over 110 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 4th most in MLB.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters put 39% of their swings in play against LHP last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Rays batted just .201 with runners on base over the last 30 days of the regular season (29 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters have grounded into 205 double plays in 2,580 opportunities (8%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters struck out just 29 times in 177 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (17 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 820 of 11,928 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 988 of 14,140 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 206 of 3,433 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 168 of 2,905 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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