- The Twins are +100 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-120) on Thursday, April 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Twins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 13 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 9-10 ATS.
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | O 13 -450 | +100 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | U 13 +333 | -120 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games at home (+7.85 Units / 157% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+7.25 Units / 121% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.75 Units / 84% ROI)
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
| Kenta Maeda | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 11-7 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 22.3% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 19.51% ROI
- 6-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -25.06% ROI
- 10-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 16.96% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 9-10 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -6.65% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -11.9% ROI
- 13-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 31.08% ROI
- 6-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -40.8% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (2/22) against Kenta Maeda on changeups this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to August 14th, 2021 — Jacob deGrom has the longest active streak at 6.
Kenta Maeda has not walked any of the 44 batters that he has faced this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (36/91) against Kenta Maeda this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has a strike rate of just 59% (289/492) vs left-handed batters since last season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
9 of Tanner Houck’s 36 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor since last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (159/303) since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OBP of .379 (132 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .307 — seventh Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 20-37 (.351) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Red Sox are just 10-12 (.455) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 7-72 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging just .111 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Twins hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 143 of their 671 plate appearances (21%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .206 (108 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Twins are batting just .099 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .492 (63 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .407 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting just .212 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 26 of 437 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 42 of 635 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.17 (59.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (722.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Red Sox pitchers had a strikeout rate of 34% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 30 days of the regular season (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Red Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
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