- The Twins are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Reds starting pitcher: Connor Phillips
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Minnesota Twins (-150) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Monday, September 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Twins vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 79-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 91-60 ATS.
Twins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +105 | O 9.5 -105 | -150 |
| Reds | +1.5 -125 | U 9.5 -115 | +125 |
Twins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 67.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Twins vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+11.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 40 games (+9.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+17.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+11.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Reds vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Will Benson | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Will Benson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Reds vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Will Benson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games (+13.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 75 away games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 129 games (+21.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 91 of their last 150 games (+21.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 61 games (+18.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games at home (+11.14 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.24 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 75-75 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.35% ROI).
- 79-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -6.32% ROI
- 75-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -1.44% ROI
- 70-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -6.83% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 91-60 against the Run Line (+20.6 Units / 10.22% ROI).
- 78-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.45 Units / 8.74% ROI
- 73-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -6.95% ROI
- 77-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -1.84% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 55% of Joe Ryan’s pitches (1,334/2,417) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 70% (811/1,159) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (653/1,159) against Joe Ryan this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (11/69) against Joe Ryan on inside fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 15% (81/521) against Adam Wainwright in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 17% (229/1,361) against Adam Wainwright in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Hitters swung at 43% of Adam Wainwright’s pitches (1,361/3,133) in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Adam Wainwright threw breaking pitches 59% of the time (384/652) when ahead in the count in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Twins are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 65-1 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are just 19-35 (.352) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Twins are 30-10 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Reds are 25-49 (.338) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Reds are just 15-20 (.429) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Reds are 13-59 (.181) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Reds are just 45-36 (.556) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .148 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .243 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Twins hitters have 1,173 strikeouts in 4,280 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .319 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Reds are batting just .132 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds are batting just .140 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 86 of 1,338 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 410 of 5,547 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,176 of 12,056 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 262 of 2,766 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D60
- Luke Maile (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Harrison Bader (Reds): Groin, D10
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Foot, D10
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