- The Twins are -165 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (-165) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+140) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 54-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 40-64 ATS.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 -110 | O 10 -115 | -165 |
| Royals | +1.5 -110 | U 10 -105 | +140 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 72.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bailey Ober has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.50 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 24 games (+17.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+12.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 100 games (+10.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 83 games (+8.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+7.85 Units / 87% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 50-54 against the Run Line (-6.25 Units / -4.85% ROI).
- 54-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -6.79% ROI
- 49-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -6.37% ROI
- 51-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -1.98% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 40-64 against the Run Line (-34.85 Units / -27.45% ROI).
- 29-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -33.8 Units / -31.4% ROI
- 47-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -12.13% ROI
- 55-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 2.71% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has walked 26 of 252 right-handed batters (10%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Sonny Gray has walked 23 of 133 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — third Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (565/1,066) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .252 (52 Total Bases / 206 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 96th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (62/113) against Brady Singer on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (93/174) against Brady Singer on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — first Percentile.
Brady Singer has an ERA of 7.42 (30.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.00 — first Percentile.
Brady Singer has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (566/1,084) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 10-32 (.238) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
The Twins are 23-6 (.793) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 8-73 (.099) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Royals are just 8-14 (.364) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
The Royals are just 7-23 (.233) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Royals are just 22-24 (.478) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .292 (945 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Twins hitters have 826 strikeouts in 2,998 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 1,074 strikeouts in 3,943 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .279 (1,923 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 64 of 935 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 291 of 3,849 batters (8%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.58 (437.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have won just 14% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.27 (902.1 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
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