- The Twins are -190 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Minnesota Twins (-190) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+155) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 54-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 41-64 ATS.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 -120 | O 9.5 -120 | -190 |
| Royals | +1.5 +100 | U 9.5 +100 | +155 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 68.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bailey Ober has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.50 Units / 71% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
| Jordan Lyles | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+2.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 101 games (+9.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 84 games (+7.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+6.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 50-55 against the Run Line (-7.35 Units / -5.65% ROI).
- 54-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.6 Units / -7.83% ROI
- 50-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -5.45% ROI
- 51-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -2.91% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 41-64 against the Run Line (-33.85 Units / -26.44% ROI).
- 30-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.3 Units / -29.73% ROI
- 48-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -11.15% ROI
- 55-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 1.73% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has not walked any of the 46 batters that he has faced over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 87% of the time (274/315) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 79% of the time (494/626) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has not walked any of the 46 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of 1.209 (86 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .714 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .671 (106 Total Bases / 158 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .421 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .442 (86 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .317 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of just .043 (2 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 43-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 111-3 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 8-73 (.099) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Royals are just 6-23 (.207) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Royals are just 11-34 (.244) after a road win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Royals are just 30-74 (.288) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (948 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Twins hitters have 1,088 strikeouts in 3,988 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .218 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .657 (948 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 31% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Twins have allowed 3.76 runs per game (192/51) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.56.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Royals have won just 14% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
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